A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
