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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.